Threatened by Erap’s hold over the masses?

FRONTLINE

Ninez Cacho-Olivares

02/28/2010
In all the so-called commissioned and non-commissioned surveys, whether they be the Social Weather Stations or the Pulse Asia survey — both of which incidentally appear to have lost their credibility --- Erap Estrada, seeking the presidency for the second time, is always ranked at third place — with his numbers remaining static for months, which is an impossibility, given that the numbers just don’t jibe with what is on the ground.

But media lap up these survey findings and have taken them as an electoral fight between just two contenders: Manny Villar and Noynoy Aquino who are now media-billed as the frontrunners in the election.

It has even come to a point where a Noynoy-commissioned survey by the TNS, released to the Yellow media, was quickly publicized, despite the fact that no data were made public — just the numbers showing Noynoy up by 11 or 12 percent over Villar. No survey question was produced, no demographics — just the survey figures on a claimed 3,000 respondents nationwide.

Gee, if such is what surveys are made of, why, anyone can come up with an unsubstantiated survey and release this to the media. Of what use would this be?

What is surprising in all this is that both, or at least their backers, want Estrada to withdraw from the race and endorse their candidacies.

But whatever for, if as claimed, Estrada ranks a poor third in the surveys, and the survey numbers for Villar and Noynoy are enough to make either one win, or so their surveys claim?

Apparently, they don’t believe in their survey numbers, or their electoral strength, and still see Estrada as a threat to their victory at the polls.

A newspaper report bared that Mike Velarde, the leader of the Catholic Charismatic Group El Shaddai, known to his flock as “Bro. Mike,” had asked Estrada to withdraw from the presidential race.

It will be recalled that last week, Estrada had bared that there have been emissaries from unnamed political camps who have asked him to withdraw from the race and that he had rejected their offers, stressing that he is not going to withdraw from the race, as he would never leave his candidates, from vice president, senators, down to the mayors supporting him, without a presidential candidate.

Estrada’s campaign manager, Ambassador Ernesto Maceda was reported to have identified one of the emissaries as Bro. Mike Velarde, who has already made his presidential choice much too public. It was he who has asked Estrada to withdraw in favor of his presidential anointed.

Velarde’s spokesman, Mel Robles, denied this, but the denial is hardly credible, given the fact that the Villar camp — as well as the Noynoy camp — has been spreading the rumor of Estrada withdrawing from the presidential race for some time.

There was even a time when, in front of some Metro Manila mayors, Villar had claimed that Estrada was willing to withdraw from the race, but that the former president was asking for too high a price for his withdrawal — which was a barefaced lie.

Velarde knows that among his El Shaddai flock, there are many who are still for Estrada, and his anointed does not have the same charismatic appeal Erap has over the masses. And Velarde also knows that the El Shaddai flock is not a command vote.

So why are these two frontrunners threatened by the continued stay in the race of Estrada?

Is it possible they know for certain that the survey figures are being massaged in their favor, and more to the point, these same survey outfits, that don’t want to see Estrada in Malacañang again, are making sure that his numbers are deliberately being brought down?

There have already been many instances where these same survey outfits have been found to have massaged the numbers, apart from the fact that the methodology used has already been junked by the western world, as too much bias creeps in on such face to face survey, not to mention the existence of a field workers’ syndicate that charges half a million pesos per one percentage point increase for the candidate. This may even explain why Estrada’s numbers are down. The percentages are subtracted from him and added up to whoever pays for that increase.

Despite their massaged survey numbers, they still want Estrada out or the race.

They must know something we don’t.